Stocks fell Monday on fears that the Federal Reserve may continue tightening until it steers the economy into a recession.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 410 points, or 1.2%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slid by 1.5% and 1.6%, respectively.
A hotter-than-expected reading of November ISM Services further fueled concerns that the Fed will continue hiking. The index posted a 56.5% reading, topping the Dow Jones estimate of 53.7% and increasing from October.
Bond yields pushed higher as equities fell, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury last trading up 8 basis points at 3.586%.
“Clearly, equity markets want to move higher, but that’s very dependent on inflation getting under control,” said Peter Essele, head of portfolio management at Commonwealth Financial Network. “And so, when you have above expectation prints on any econ number that comes out, that tends to fuel inflationary concerns, which sends rates higher.”
In other news, Tesla shares shed about 4% on reports of an output cut at its Shanghai factory, while Macao-linked casino stocks gained on hopes of easing Covid-19 restrictions.
Investors are watching for fresh economic data ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. Following a speech last week by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, markets largely expect the central bank will approve a 0.5 percentage point interest rate increase. That would mark a step down from a series of four straight 0.75 percentage point hikes.
However, Powell also said the “terminal rate,” or point where the Fed stops raising, likely “will need to be somewhat higher” than indicated at the September meeting. That could mean a fed funds rate that ends up in excess of 5%, from its current target range of 3.75%-4%.
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report added to the market’s Fed anxiety as average hourly earnings rose above expectations. Wage pressures on inflation could force the Fed into an even more aggressive stance.
The major averages are coming off a second consecutive positive week.
Despite the recent rally, Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist said investors should consider taking profits since the risk-reward for equities is likely capped as the S&P nears the bank’s original tactical target range of 4,000 to 4,150.
“As suggested two weeks ago, for this tactical rally to go higher, back end rates would need to fall,” he said in a note to clients Monday. “Fast forward to today and that’s what has happened. However, we are now right into our original upside targets and we recommend taking profits before the Bear returns in earnest.”
— CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed reporting
