The Labour Party this morning released “Labour’s fiscal plan” together with a document reviewing that plan and prepared for the Labour Party by Brad Olsen of Infometrics. Both documents can be found here.
I suppose it is good that they have put out such a document – I’m not sure parties in office always have previously – but it adds almost nothing to our state of knowledge as at the PREFU a couple of weeks ago.
And so here, again, is the text and charts from my post after PREFU, where I suggested it was really a case of “pretend fiscal policy”. After that text, I’ll add a few charts on today’s release.
This morning’s post previewed PREFU at a high level, pointing out that both main parties had been in practice endorsing expansionary fiscal policy, and that the likely operating balance surplus that would be shown in the PREFU would really reflect nothing more solid than aspiration, even after the numbers had been gamed. Neither party seemed to have a concrete fiscal strategy or plan to actually close the deficit, a deficit which the IMF estimated a few weeks ago was one of the largest among advanced countries as a share of GDP.
As far as I can see there are no great surprises in the PREFU fiscal numbers. There is a small surplus in 2026/27, using the numbers the government told Treasury to use for its future spending plans. Anyone can plonk down a number. Delivering it is another thing.
There isn’t going to be lots of fresh analysis in this post, mostly (at least for fiscals) a series of charts I’ve shown on Twitter.
For example, here is how Treasury’s forecast of the operating balance (OBEGAL) as a share of GDP for the year we are now in has evolved just over the last 20 months.
The deterioration since the Budget this year is despite the economic position and capacity pressures (the output gap) being a bit less negative. This is a year for which the spending has now been appropriated, the taxes put in place etc.
What about the following year?
We aren’t anywhere that year yet, but the forecasts have already revised down massively.
And despite recent talk of renewed fiscal discipline and spending restraint, here are the projections for core Crown spending as a share of GDP, again for the next Budget year. The PREFU forecast share is higher again than the BEFU one. And this is before Ministers actually have to confront drawing up next year’s Budget.
The political parties want us to believe that we are on a track back to surplus. We aren’t. Instead, the Secretary has been given some numbers to be consistent with a surplus by the end of the period, and for anything else…..well, we just have to wait for successive Budgets under whichever government holds office.
As for Treasury, they have to be a little diplomatic, but here is their text about spending and operating allowances, and my summary commentary
The medium-term numbers in the PREFU are just not a serious contribution to anything much. They distract more than they clarify or reveal.
Whichever party forms the government they face tough choices over years if they were actually to be serious about getting back not to surplus, or even balance. If they aren’t serious then net debt will continue to rise as a share of GDP and within a few years we will have higher net debt as a share of GDP than the median advanced country.
27 September material here again:
Setting aside the outright political spin one might expect in any such document or the deceit by omission (no mention of how fiscal policy in the last couple of years is adding to inflation pressures, or that while the median advanced country now has stable ratios of net debt to GDP, here that ratio is rising rapidly (albeit still at a level a little lower than the median advanced country)), what we have in today’s release isn’t much more than a statement showing that the specific operating spending items Labour has already committed to, as government or as party, do not add to more than the operating allowances Labour in government set a few weeks ago.
I guess that is welcome but (a) it is hardly a surprise (they set the operating allowance knowing at least in outline their election campaign approach, and (b) it isn’t enlightening because there is very little serious analysis of underlying cost pressures (eg are teachers really going to be stuck with a permanent real wage cut?), past track records (National is touting a nice table out showing how actual spending has consistently exceeded signalled future operating allowances) and nothing at all of substance on what is going to be cut to deliver on the sudden arbitrary scope for savings the government claimed to identifiy (and got in the PREFU numbers) a few weeks ago.
The publication of the Olsen report is also welcome. But it is very limited indeed.
They don’t seem to have had much time
and they explicitly reiterate that Treasury line I quoted above that “significant trade-offs will be required”.
Here is the conclusion
It is a mechanical exercise not a behavioural one. Do things add up to less than the announced operating allowance? As far as they can tell, yes they do. It is good to know, but (again) isn’t telling us much.
Meanwhile we are still waiting for the National fiscal plan (let alone publication of the modelling their reviewer is said to have done for items in the earlier tax and spending package). Today’s document will up the pressure on them, at least a little, perhaps including in tonight’s leaders debate.
The bottom line, however, is likely to be that Labour had its irresponsible splurge in the last two Budgets (when Covid was simply not a material consideration, the economy was overheating, and domestic inflation was miles above target) and in this campaign there isn’t really much of a fresh bout (although one could mount a good argument that now is not the time for giveaways no matter the party). National, sadly, seems to think it should have its turn to splurge – and to further distort the tax system with the same anti business investment depreciation provisions Labour is also promising. It is no time for tax cuts, even if somehow they were (locally) fully funded and the revenue estimates stacked up. It is no time for substantial cyclically-adjusted fiscal deficits, which don’t fix themselves. Labour offers no credible story for how they will close them – just drew a line on a graph saying they will and that now they are the reformed drunkard not the drinker still on a binge.
Will National offer anything better re overall fiscal management? On the evidence to date – including comments from Willis citing Key/English, who were still running net expansionary budgets as late as 2010, before any quakes – it is difficult to be optimistic. One day we will see their plan.
