The share of Oregonians in the workforce has remained at historic lows for nearly a decade, a national trend that reflects an aging population moving into retirement and younger people who are taking their time to join the job market.
With Oregon’s population flat, or perhaps in decline, workforce participation rates could be a key long-run economic barometer for the state.
The decline in workforce participation is especially pronounced in rural Oregon, which tends to skew older. That’s according to an analysis last year by Tracy Morrissette, a statistics coordinator with the Oregon Employment Department.
Statewide, the workforce participation rate is 62%, down from a peak near 70% in the late 1990s.
Coos, Lincoln and Curry counties have the state’s lowest labor participation rates, all under 50%, Morrisette found. More than a quarter of the people living in those counties are over 65 – in Curry County, more than a third. Just 19% of all Oregonians are over 65.
The counties with the highest labor participation rates are Hood River, Washington and Multnomah – all near or above 70%. And all their populations are relatively young, according to Census data.
“Moving forward, overall labor force participation rates will decline, simply due to the aging of the population. As more Baby Boomers enter into their retirement years, the share of all adults working or looking for work will fall as a result,” state economists wrote last fall in their quarterly revenue forecast.
But Oregon continued adding jobs throughout the last two years, and wages have continued climbing – albeit not quite as fast as inflation. Those factors may have contributed to a modest growth in Oregon’s labor force participation in 2021. (Last year’s numbers won’t be out until March.)
In the long run, state economists say Oregon’s challenge will be reviving population growth by attracting workers from outside the state and keeping people in the labor force whenever the next recession hits. They note that “large numbers of discouraged workers” dropped out of the workforce altogether after the dot-com bust and again during the Great Recession.
“It was only once the economy became strong again in the late 2010s and early 2020s have some of those losses begun to be regained,” the economists concluded.
This is Oregon Insight, The Oregonian’s weekly look at the numbers behind the state’s economy. View past installments here.
— Mike Rogoway | mrogoway@oregonian.com | 503-294-7699
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