The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade said in its report on Nov. 21 that the South Korean economy is estimated to grow 1.9 percent next year.
“South Korea’s annual exports are estimated to decrease 3.1 percent next year with demand contraction and deteriorating semiconductor industry conditions more than offsetting the positive effects of raw and auxiliary material price stabilization and price competitiveness based on a weak won,” it said, adding, “The annual imports are estimated to decrease 5.1 percent based on oil and raw material price stabilization and a slowdown of the domestic economy, and its annual trade deficit is expected to decrease to US$26.6 billion from US$42.6 billion or so.”
Regarding the 13 key industries that account for about 80 percent of South Korea’s exports, the institute said that exports from the automotive industry are expected to increase 2.5 percent next year, the respective figures of shipbuilding, rechargeable battery and biotech and healthcare are expected to increase 42.4 percent, 17.3 percent and 6.5 percent, and the rest are likely to remain sluggish. “The combined exports from the 13 sectors are estimated to decrease from US$539.7 billion to US$517.9 billion next year,” it said, adding, “Imports in these industries are likely to increase 8 percent this year and fall 1.2 percent next year.”
Next year’s average international oil price estimated by the institute is US$90 per barrel. It also said that the average won-dollar exchange rates for the first half and the second half of next year are estimated at 1,343.3 won and 1,295 won per U.S. dollar, respectively.
