It was one too many mentions of Equatorial Guinea that prompted me to pull together this very quick follow-up to my post yesterday showing some snippets from the newly-released IMF WEO.
For my tastes, these comparisons of forecast growth in real GDP per capita for New Zealand and the group of advanced countries are most useful and enlightening
But it was easy enough to download the data for both GDP and GDP per capita (both in constant price – “real” – terms) for all the countries and territories in the Fund’s database (roughly 190 of them, depending on the precise variable and year). I did it for both variables and for the three years, 2022, 2023, and 2024. The forecasts are annual not quarterly, so (for example) the growth rate for 2023 is GDP generated in the whole of this year relative to that in the whole of last year.
Take real GDP growth first:
In 2022, New Zealand is shown as having 2.2 per cent growth. That put us 130th of 192 countries (in case you are wondering, and to no one’s surprise surely, Ukraine did worst).
In 2023, the Fund expects real GDP growth here of 1.1 per cent. That would put us 152nd of 190 countries (Sudan doing worst).
In 2024 – and for these forecasts the Fund basically assumes constant policy – the Fund forecasts that New Zealand’s real GDP growth will be 1.0 per cent, 180th of 190 countries (and here Equatorial Guinea really is last).
As context, here are the five countries either side of New Zealand for 2024
But headline GDP isn’t even close to a measure of economic wellbeing. Some countries have rising populations and some falling populations. New Zealand’s population has tended to rise faster than most advanced countries, particularly so right now. Real GDP per capita data/forecasts are typically more useful, as being a bit closer to the average experience of an individual in a country.
How does the IMF see New Zealand doing on that count?
In 2022 the IMF shows us as having had growth in real per capita GDP of 2.2 per cent, 98th of 192 countries/territories (Macao did worst)
In 2023 the IMF expects that New Zealand will have had real per capita GDP growth of -0.1 per cent, ranking us 156th of 190 countries (Timor-Leste did worst).
And in 2024 the IMF forecasts that New Zealand will have real per capita GDP growth of 0.0 per cent, ranking us 177th of 190 countries (and there Equatorial Guinea is projected to be worst).
Here are the five countries/territories either side of us this year (an eclectic mix it would be fair to say)
and here is the same snippet for the 2024 forecasts
To repeat, macroeconomic forecasters aren’t very good, and the IMF is no better than most of the others. But these are consistently compiled numbers, and for 2022 the numbers are reasonably firm and for 2023 almost three-quarters of the year had gone when the numbers were finalised.
